The 51% Discount: Operator Rankings, Scenario Sensitivity, and Where the SAF Pipeline Inflates Most
Axial Intelligence | SAF Project Tracker | April 2026 | Paid Subscriber Edition
The companion free post established the headline finding: probability weighting reduces the global SAF pipeline from 39.7 Mt/yr gross to 19.5 Mt/yr, a 51% discount. This paid edition provides the operator-level evidence, the scenario range, the regional discount map, and the exposure-band overlay that explains where inflation concentrates and what it means for specific market participants.